Nigeria is providing signs of commitment to transit towards a sustainable economy. In order to fulfil this, it has signed the Paris Agreement. By 2030, it has pledged to reduce unconditional emissions by 20% and to increase the fall in conditional pledge to 47%. It has also mentioned about meeting its goal of net zero by 2060. These targets will help in attaining decisions relating to investment and would lead to changes in energy system. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)’s report titled “Renewable Energy Roadmap: Nigeria” published in January 2023 sheds light on how Nigeria’s economy is making efforts to increase uptake of renewables and technologies related to renewable energy that will be an important factor in attaining this. It also provides a roadmap for the country using two scenarios:
- Planned energy scenario (PES), which represents demand for energy based on current policies and strategies.
- Transforming energy scenario (TES), which represents future expansion of capacity (renewables) which decreases primary requirements of energy and GHG emissions.
The study also focusses on renewable share within different end use sectors. It talks about PES and its comparison with TES under different sectors from 2015-2050. REGlobal provides a brief extract of the report…
Basic requirement of energy in PES
The requirement of total basic energy supply is 5,138 PJ by 2030 and 13,044 PJ by 2050. The major components are bioenergy, crude oil and natural gas. The share of bioenergy falls from 43% in 2015 to 33% by 2030 and 27% by 2050 but its supply increases from 1,129 PJ in 2015 to 1,622 PJ by 2030 and 3,478 PJ by 2050.
CO2 emissions under PES of different sectors
CO2 emissions are observed to be increasing by more than 3 times from 2015-2050 reaching 516 Mt in 2050. Transport and electricity sectors are major contributors of CO2 emissions. It is seen that CO2 emissions are increasing. The emissions of energy sector per year were 119 Mt in 2015. While in TES, emissions grew slowly per year to 189 Mt by 2050. According to the report, it becomes clear that there is a shift towards transport sector as it becomes main source of emissions by 2030, making it obvious as to which sector will be prioritised in future.
The total final energy demand has been observed to increase more than 4 times from 2014-2050 reaching 10,351 PJ in 2050. From the graph, it can be seen that residential sector has been growing very slowly and its contribution declined severely from 29% in 2015 to 18% in 2050, primarily due to significant increase in demand in other sectors and significant efficiency gains due to technological progress.
End use sectors
In residential sector, the energy demand increase is doubling over the time period of 35 years in PES. Biomass appears to be promising source till 2030 but shows signs of decline by 2050. Rural and urban areas show good access to cooking fuel but electricity is seen to be a source where rural area will have its full access only by 2035. However, electricity is largest patron with a percentage of 53% by 2050.
However, the demand for energy under TES is 33% lower than in the case of PES which is visible from consumption of electricity. In case of need for energy for cooking, efficiency of better cookstoves is three times that of conventional ones. It is evident that presiding choice for cooking is LPG stoves. Biogas is seen to be most in rural areas whereas electric stoves is seen to be used more in urban areas. There is only little change in overall demand for energy which can be attributed to electrification and appliance efficiency. Further, diversification of cooking mix with electricity and modern renewables is required to increase the use of renewable energy as it is much better than LPG.
Under commercial sector (PES), electricity and biomass are the important components of energy and the former is observed to be increased by 277% in 2050. Its reason can be attributed to demand which is met efficiently as a result of NEEAP and NREAP. The percentage for renewable energy share is expected to rise to 55% in 2050. Similarly, a drop was seen in commercial buildings to 31.6% by 2050 in TES. Renewable and electricity shares are also seen to be dropped significantly by 2050.
Gasoline and diesel, which are the main sources of energy by private sector in 2015, accounts to over 98% and can be attributed to high use by private vehicles in transport sector (PES). However, the NGEP promoted the use of CNG which decreased the use of other sources by 70% till 2050. These policies targeted to accomplish ethanol and biodiesel as a share of energy consumption by this sector. An eight-fold rise in freight use was also seen but the use of EV was not favoured due to lack of EV policy. Due to huge dependence on conventional sources of energy like fossil fuels, need for imports, air pollution, requirements resulted in TES that positively impacted various factors. The demand for energy under transport sector is projected to grow by 4,172 PJ by the mid of 21st century. There is rise in demand for private cars as a result of increase in income.
In TES, this sector saw a rise in final energy demand to 2,846 PJ by 2050. However, it is lower to 32% as compared to PES. There is modal shift towards public cars because of increase in renewable energy as almost half of trains and 35% buses will become electric by 2050. This is also a result of transport sector which saw a rise in final energy.
An increase of around 50% energy consumption is the goal of NEEAP (PES). In industrial sector, biomass is a main source which is seen to be risen by 7 times in timeframe of 35 years. Fertiliser, steel, cement is some of the reasons for this improvement technology. By 2050, it is projected to decrease the use of wet process under cement sector. In TES, savings of 22% can be seen in TES when compared with PES. Moving beyond old technologies, this sector provides evidence of better efficiency. In order to decrease the consumption of energy, TES takes hold of all the strategies in which modern renewables share will reach 36% in 2050. This decreased share can be attributed to a decline in consumption of biomass. In order to achieve better results, a number of steps are needed to come up with better technologies and to make sure that policymakers are aware of such technologies.
Power is required mostly for irrigation purposes with diesel being important source of fuel. Under PES, the share of pumps which are solar based is expected to increase from near zero to 10% by 2050 while that of renewable energy will remain low.
In TES, although acquiring only a small share in demand of energy, agricultural sector is an important part of the economy of Nigeria. It is seen that the demand decreases by 16.7% by the mid of 21st century. The efficiency of the sector is increased as gasoline pump sets are substituted by solar and electric based pump sets. As a result, it is projected that the share of renewable will reach to 70% by 2050. Thus, there should be promotion of better solar based pumps and tractors for irrigation purposes, particularly in rural areas which will increase to 60% by 2050.
Under PES, capacity increase of installed capacity (60% in 2050) can be attributed to reduction of technology cost. Captive generation is expected to go negligible by 2050. The expected increase of renewable energy will lead to decrease in use of fossil fuels by 35.4%. High share of renewable energy will be constituted by off grid PV. It is expected that power needs will be more centralised by 2050 in Nigeria. Hydro, utility scale solar followed by off grid PV will form major part of energy by mid of century whereas in TES, transformation of power sector is witnessed in terms of total installed capacity as it increases to 178 GW by 2050 under TES, implying a 31% as compared to PES. There has been no capacity expansion of nuclear energy and natural gas. Off grid PV system forms an important share of renewables installed capacity. This capacity is required to provide higher electricity due to limited activity of variable renewable energy.
The graph shows that even after growth in management of demand as well as better efficiency no decrease in demand for electricity is seen by 2050. The share of renewable will reach to 84% by 2050 with off grid PV a main source of power production. Gaining momentum of electricity capacity will be important for unsealing green energy sources.
It is important that there should be better administration of policies along with mindful selection of strategies and technologies for augmenting development of energy. Essential coordination of policies will ensure success of the plan which will scale up energy supply to meet the requirements across the sectors.
- Large infrastructure requirements are needed to be met. Solar heat process will play indispensable role in industries as it will provide ample and reliable supply of thermal energy, thereby reducing pollution. 8% share of these technologies can meet energy demand of industries by 2030. Encouraging electric process heat for industries would be beneficial in long run.
- Efficiency of present appliances and broadening of programs related to lighting is needed.
- Promoting cutting edge funding methods for energy and dispersed green sources such as microfinance can help achieve this, particularly in the replacement of transmission lines with residential solar kits and mini – grids, which have greater efficiency.
- By making it available to reduce the fluctuation of solar electricity, hydropower will be essential in maintaining the national power system.
- It is necessary to strengthen current initiatives to advertise clean cooking and give people access to contemporary energy sources.
The full report can be read here